Bolli Þórsson^1,2

Elías Freyr Guðmundsson¹

Gunnar Sigurðsson¹

Thor Aspelund^1,3

Vilmundur Guðnason^1,3

¹Icelandic Heart Association, ²Landspitali- The National University Hospital of Iceland, ³University of Iceland

Correspondence: Vilmundur Guðnason, v.gudnason@hjarta.is

Keywords: Prevalence of type 2 diabetes, Incidence of type 2 diabetes, Prescription Medicines Register, Icelandic Heart Association.

INTRODUCTION: The number of people with type 2 diabetes has increased in Iceland in the last few decades. We utilized the national database on prescribed medication from the Directorate of Health to estimate the prevalence and incidence of type 2 diabetes in Iceland and made prediction on the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Iceland in 10 and 20 years.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prevalence and incidence of type 2 diabetes for the period 2005-2018 was estimated based on prescriptions of diabetes medication in the national prescription database containing all prescriptions in Iceland during the period. The result was compared to the result from the REFINE-Reykjavik study (prospective, population-based cohort study) from 2004 to 2011 and published data from the USA from 1980 to 2016.

RESULTS: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes more than doubled in near all age groups in both men and women in the period 2005-2018. The incidence increased by 2.8% annually (in 18-79 years old). The number of people in Iceland with type 2 diabetes was 10600 in 2018 and had increased from 4200 in the year 2005.

Comparison with the results of the REFINE-Reykjavik study showed an underestimation (29% in men and women) of the prevalence of type 2 diabetes.

If the increase in type 2 diabetes continues at a similar rate as in the years 2005-2018 the number of people with diabetes in Iceland could be near 24000 in the year 2040.

CONCLUSION: Linear increase was seen in incidence and prevalence of people with type 2 diabetes in the years 2005-2018. Similar evolution was seen in USA from 1984. In order to counteract the increase of type 2 diabetes following the same path as has been seen in the USA, targeted measures are needed.